Taiwan is a Sovereign Independent Nation

Observations on Aircraft Carrier Deployments

Carlos, was a man over fifty years of age who had lived in Taiwan for decades, spoke reasonably good Chinese, and happened to be from a Central American country which had had full diplomatic relations with the Republic of China for as long as anyone could remember. On the occasion of his country’s national day, he was invited to speak to a meeting of the students at a local high school. His planned to identify and discuss some future developing trends both in Taiwan and the world in general.

During the question and answer session, one student asked if the Chinese communists attacked Taiwan, in his estimation, would his country and all of the ROC’s other diplomatic allies send all their aircraft carriers to aid in Taiwan’s defense.

Carlos was somewhat surprised by this question. But, without going into any explanations, he quickly replied that Yes, he was sure that in the event of a PRC attack, all of the ROC’s diplomatic allies would send all of their aircraft carriers to Taiwan’s aid.

Another student expressed puzzlement about why any people in the international community would say that, in order to be recognized as an independent sovereign nation, Taiwan needed to issue a declaration of independence. "Isn’t it true that the Republic of China has been an independent sovereign nation since 1912?" he asked.

Carlos knew that the "Oct. 25, 1945, Retrocession Day" theory was widely taught in the local schools. Some history textbooks even went so far as to say that the 1895 cession to Japan had never happened, and Taiwan had belonged to China since antiquity. Based on these factors, and in consideration that the general focus of his speech was toward the future, it didn’t seem a good idea to mention that (1) Taiwan was not a part of the Republic of China during its first few decades, and that (2) there was even serious doubt that Taiwan had been incorporated into the national territory of the ROC at any time after WWII. Therefore it was entirely possible that (3) the "Republic of China" was not a synonym for "Taiwan."

Rather than offering different points of view to the students (which might negatively affect their test scores), Carlos dodged the question by stating that his own research on the history of the Republic of China only went back to 1913, so he was unable to comment on the situation in 1912. However, he promised to go to the library and research that when he had time.

An elder brother of one of the students who attended the meeting knew a reporter in a local Taiwan media conglomerate. He contacted the reporter and told him about everything Carlos had said. The reporter considered writing up a story, and contacted Carlos for a clarification. They arranged a video chat, and several other media people and bloggers participated.

"I am not sure if I got this right," the reporter began, "but according to what I heard, you said that in your view, if the PRC attacks Taiwan, all of the ROC’s diplomatic allies would send all of their aircraft carriers to help Taiwan. But according to my knowledge, none of the ROC’s diplomatic allies even have any aircraft carriers."

"Yes, I am aware of that," Carlos replied. "So, if they send zero aircraft carriers then that is the totality of all the aircraft carriers they have."

Doing an Overview of Fundamentals

Later that evening, the reporter conferred with his other friends who had participated in the video chat. They agreed that Carlos’ story was not particularly insightful. However upon deeper consideration one person suggested that it actually illustrated a very important point: Taiwan’s relationship with the United States is much more important than the totality of its relationships with all of the countries with which the ROC has formal diplomatic ties.

Indeed, these media people recalled that previously, in some closed-door discussions, many clear-headed members of the local Taiwan populace had even admitted this to be true. However, at the same time, many of them feel that the maintenance of a Ministry of Foreign Affairs is warranted because, according to their logic, "Even the United States recognized Taiwan as an independent sovereign nation up to the end of 1978. Based on that historical fact, it is clear that Taiwan meets the criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention. So, realistically, if United States’ relations with the PRC continue to sour, there is a good possibility that the USA will re-establish formal diplomatic relations with the ROC on Taiwan!"

Some days later, in looking over his notes, the reporter thought that the Central American viewpoint on this issue might be insightful. He also wanted to get his friend’s comments on "The Duck Test for Taiwan’s Putative Statehood" which had been mentioned in some recent international conferences held in Taiwan. The following week he invited Carlos to visit a new exhibition at the National Museum of History in Taipei, and he mentioned this line of reasoning to him.

Carlos thought for a few moments, and then began to shake his head. "I think that you are making a mistake that many people in the international diplomatic community made for many years. And yes I believe that many high-ranking US government officials are in that group."

"And what mistake is that?" the reporter inquired.

"Well, if we overview the period beginning from the late 1930s onward (and even up into the 1950s and 1960s), we can understand that the United States is recognizing the ROC as a legitimate government, which is to say that the US has given full diplomatic recognition to the ROC as the sole legal government of China.

"But the status of the ROC in Taiwan is something else entirely. You can’t extrapolate the ROC’s legitimacy in mainland China to its legal status in Taiwan. That is a mistake that many people made during that time period, . . . . . . or that many people continue to make in the current day when discussing that time period."

The Value of the ROC’s Diplomatic Ties

Less than a week previously, there had been much debate in the local Taiwan media regarding the value of the diplomatic ties which the ROC maintains. Many local citizens strongly believe that such ties are primarily maintained through the use of "checkbook diplomacy," and feel that the expenditure of all those funds would achieve greater benefit if spent directly in Taiwan.

After visiting the Museum, they decided to go to a local restaurant. It was located on a relatively high floor in an older building, north of Min Chuan West Road. Unfortunately however, the outside of the building was covered with scaffolding, so their view of the environs was not at all clear.

Over a dinner which started with Taiwanese style vegetables, dumplings, fried beef strips, and corn soup, they began a lively discussion. Rather straightforwardly, the reporter asked Carlos if Taiwan was a State in the international community. "Many respectable scholars often point out that Taiwan looks like a State, acts like a State, and speaks like a State, it must be a State and should be recognized as such," the reporter added.

"Ah, yes," Carlos nodded, "the Duck Test for Statehood. Well, I recently read an essay about the ‘Soviet Union in Iwo Jima,’ and I recall that the author presents a scenario where all the four objective criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention are satisfied, but there are still some significant arguments against recognizing the ‘entity’ in question as a sovereign state."

"So how does that work?"

"The author argues that there are some situations where an evaluation of the Montevideo Convention criteria will give a ‘false positive’." The waiter brought several tall glasses of ice lemon tea. "I will send you a URL for that essay if I find it," Carlos said. "On second thought, I think someone made it into a film and posted it on Youtube."

Moving on to a discussion of the value of foreign relations, Carlos was quick to point out that according to his observation, both the local people and the officials serving in the government in Taiwan very much prided themselves on Taiwan’s promotion of democracy at all levels. Based on that, why not have some local think tanks collect all the data on the ROC’s expenditures on foreign relations for the past few years, and compile some sort of cost-benefit analysis? Then at the next election the people could vote in a referendum whether maintaining diplomatic relations with these countries was worthwhile or not.

"If a majority of the populace felt that more benefit would be obtained by the expenditure of those funds right here domestically in Taiwan, then that could be implemented."

"It is a very daring idea," the reporter smiled. "Do you think that there is any precedent internationally for a country to have the maintenance of its foreign diplomatic relations decided in a referendum?"

"Other countries are not faced with the international challenges that Taiwan faces," Carlos remarked calmly. "Look, I am not saying that the people living in these countries which maintain formal diplomatic relations with the ROC are not nice people, but the cultivation of diplomatic allies should not be approached in the way you organize a simple ‘friendship club.’ The key issue the Taiwan people are facing is nothing less than ‘national survival.’ Think again about my aircraft carrier example."

"But isn’t that a very special case?"

"Not really. Look at all of the international organizations from which Taiwan is excluded. There are the World Health Organization (WHO), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL), and many others. Moreover, in the last few years we have seen many international conferences, even virtual ones, adopting ‘UN rules,’ which results in participants from Taiwan being excluded automatically."

The restaurant where they were eating was slowly becoming more international. Some months back, the management began accepting suggestions from the customers as to what new items to add to the menu. Carlos moved his chopsticks toward a huge plate of deep-fried onion rings. "So, in my view it is very straightforward. In fact, the local people in Taiwan can do very little to break through these impasses." He tugged at several onion rings from the center, and the entire pile fell down. Carlos’ placed these onion rings on his plate and reached for more.

"Clearly, the help of some diplomatic allies that are really ‘movers and shakers’ in the international community is needed. But none of the ROC’s diplomatic allies fit this description."

The reporter contemplated Carlos’ remarks for a few moments. "What would it take to get more international support for Taiwan? Being from Central America, what is your view?"

Carlos shook his head slowly. "Taiwan used to have diplomatic relations with a lot of countries in Central America," he said, "but those are all gone now. El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, all gone. Also, in late August 2023, there was more bad news from Central America, and at a meeting of the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN) there was a vote to expel Taiwan, and it passed 73 to 32."

"With nine abstentions," the reporter added.

"You pay a lot of attention to details." Carlos interjected, "Did you also take note of the fact that Guatemala supported Taiwan’s continuing participation in PARLACEN, but it was unable to turn the tide . . . . . . so to speak. I believe that many international media and local media here in Taiwan reported on Guatemala's efforts in this regard."

The reporter and his wife also began eating some of the onion rings, and collecting those which had fallen on to the tablecloth.

"The international order needs to be shaken up," the reporter’s wife commented.

Establishing ROC Sovereignty Based on its Existing Diplomatic Relations with Other Sovereign Nations

The three of them decided to order some vegetarian selections. Carlos continued: "Today, if we want to examine the contention that ‘Taiwan/ROC is a sovereign entity based on its existing diplomatic relations with other sovereign nations,’ we must certainly first consider one point."

Some ears of corn arrived, and Carlos picked one up with his fingers. The reporter and his wife gazed at him curiously. He continued: "When we hear that nearly fifteen world countries have full diplomatic relations with the Taiwan/ROC, well then, precisely speaking, what is it that they are giving diplomatic recognition to?"

"Another good topic for local think tanks to investigate," the reporter’s wife commented.

"Exactly. The name that Taiwan uses in conducting diplomatic relations is ‘Republic of China,’ and according to its constitution claims that it is the legal government of all of China, including all of the mainland China areas.

"Do the ROC’s diplomatic allies recognize this fact?" Carlos spoke to no one in particular. "Might I point out that if they did, none of their government officials would be able to attend conferences, seminars, exhibitions, etc. in mainland China, because the overseas consulates or embassies of the Republic of China would be unable to issue them valid visas for travel to such areas."

"So, what you are saying is that," the reporter began summarizing, "how the ROC government officials like to view themselves, and how their diplomatic allies view the ROC, are probably quite different."

"Yes," Carlos nodded. "And without some detailed clarification on the true significance of the ROC’s diplomatic ties, it is really hard to gauge whether they are making a positive contribution to Taiwan’s struggle for international recognition."

"Detailed surveys need to be conducted on all these types of issues," the reporter agreed.

"Moreover, it wouldn’t hurt for Taiwan think tanks to contact some international researchers, and consult with them on these issues as well," Carlos suggested. "One point of view (rarely heard in Taiwan) says the competition for diplomatic allies in Oceania by Taiwan and the PRC is a very destabilizing factor in the world community."

He leaned down to take a small notebook from his backpack. He flipped through a few pages and began reading. "The authors of a book entitled China in Oceania: Reshaping the Pacific advance the observation that the escalating rivalry with Taiwan for influence in the region continues to attract much critical attention from international observers. According to some senior Australian journalists, for example ‘The diplomatic competition between China and Taiwan is destabilizing island states . . . . making Pacific politics more corrupt and more violent.’ "

"About a month ago I was reading the article ‘Foreign Relations of Taiwan’ in Wikipedia, and I noticed that it had a large section on ‘Bribery Allegations’," Carlos added. "Taiwan has been accused on multiple occasions of bribing foreign politicians to commence or maintain diplomatic relations."

"Maybe some think tanks need to write in-depth reports about that," the reporter nodded.

Carlos checked his watch, saying that he needed to get going, since he was planning to attend a lecture regarding "New Directions in Taiwan Democracy" at a nearby conference center.

As he stood to go, he offered: "As anyone who has lived in Taiwan for some time, read the local media, and talked to the local people can tell you, the goal of the ROC’s establishment of diplomatic relations with other countries is to be recognized as the ‘legal government of China.’ And how should I describe that? That thinking is something left over from the Chinese civil war."

"Some historians argue that the Chinese civil war had nothing to do with Taiwan," the reporter offered. "Because when the ROC civil government relocated to occupied Taiwan in December 1949, Taiwan was still under the sovereignty of Japan. So, this relocation meant that the ROC had moved its operations fully outside the national boundaries of China."

"Under these circumstances, to adhere to the viewpoint that the Chinese civil war is still continuing has a certain element of surrealism," the reporter’s wife observed.

"So, coming back again to the ROC’s striving for the establishment of diplomatic relations in the world, and then examining the apparent goal for these diplomatic relations which is to be recognized as the ‘legal government of China’ . . . . . . " Carlos sighed. "What exactly this goal has to do with the promotion of Taiwan as a full-fledged member of the international community is not entirely clear to me."

In a rather somber tone, the reporter commented "Well, I doubt that it is clear to the majority of people who have grown up in Taiwan either, especially to those under the age of fifty-five."

The reporter's wife then added: "My husband is a member of a Foreign Affairs Reporters' Association, and he likes to ask sensitive questions at local press conferences. If he uncovers any good information, we will let you know."

Carlos frowned, shook his head slightly, and then wished them both Good Luck.